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FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL

FIUFIU

2-2  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Pratt & Whitney Stadium
View Odds Details →

UCONN

UCONNCONN

3-2  |  Home

51
Key Game
Ormond Wallace
KEY GAME

Ormond Wallace

#10 | Defensive Back
@
Hayden Pegg
KEY GAME

Hayden Pegg

#37 | Linebacker
Player
Ormond Wallace None-None
Hayden Pegg None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FIU
0%
📊
UCONN
100%
FIU --
UCONN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Florida International)
FIUFIU (-3.5) 0 UConnCONN (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

FIU Cover

93.3%

UConn Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around FIU -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FIU)

FIU By 1-6 points

7.9%

FIU By 7-13 points

14.6%

CONN By 1-6 points

3.8%

CONN By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
11
UCONN
Simulated Score
20
FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL
27
UCONN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI FIU Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UConn Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI FIU (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim UConn (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 FIU @ CONN 10 - 51
Sep 16, 2023 FIU @ CONN 24 - 17
Oct 8, 2022 CONN @ FIU 33 - 12
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +93.9% more
Florida International: 1.5 vs UConn: 0.1
First Downs (L5) +17.4% more
UConn: 20.0 vs Florida International: 17.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FIU Score 32.0 10
CONN Score 11.0 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.0 / 17.1 22.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 186.7 / 175.2 150.0 / 130.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.46 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 405.5 / 379.9 527.0 / 304.0
Turnovers 0.1 / 1.5 1.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
33%MONEY67%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
71%MONEY29%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
31%TICKETS69%
3%MONEY97%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FIU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
CONN
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FIU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 6.6 ATS +/-: -0.1
CONN Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +9.0
⚖️ Over/Under
FIU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -22.1
CONN
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +9.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CONN
FIU
CONN
FIU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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