Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Oregon St @ App State ORST @ APP

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-5  |  Road

23
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Kidd Brewer Stadium
View Odds Details →

APP STATE

APP STATEAPP

2-2  |  Home

27
Key Game
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
@
Juan Berchal
KEY GAME

Juan Berchal

#0 | Defensive Back
Player
Caleb Ojeda None-None
Juan Berchal None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OREGON ST
0%
📊
APP STATE
100%
OREGON ST --
APP STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
49.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Oregon State)
Oregon StORST (-3.5) 0 App StateAPP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Oregon St Cover

99.4%

App State Cover

0.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ORST -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

ORST By 1-6 points

1.4%

ORST By 7-13 points

4.1%

APP By 1-6 points

0.4%

APP By 7-13 points

0.1%

AI Model Projected Score
42
OREGON STATE
7
APP STATE
Simulated Score
20
OREGON STATE
31
APP STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim App State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Oregon St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim App State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 49.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 ORST @ APP 23 - 27
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +199.0% more
App State: 3.0 vs Oregon State: 1.0
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.4% more
App State: 141.8 vs Oregon State: 114.9
Total Yards (L5) +16.8% more
App State: 380.7 vs Oregon State: 326.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ORST Score 42.0 23
APP Score 7.0 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.6 / 18.3 18.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 141.8 / 114.9 136.0 / 98.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 380.7 / 326.1 354.0 / 456.0
Turnovers 3.0 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
30%MONEY70%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
31%MONEY69%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ORST
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
APP Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
APP
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 12.5 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
APP
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
APP
ORST
APP
ORST
ML
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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