WASHINGTON
WASHINGTONWASH
3-1 | Road
24
MARYLAND
MARYLANDMD
4-0 | Home
20
Key Game
KEY GAME
Luke Dunne
#45 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Bryce McFerson
#34 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Luke Dunne | None-None |
| Bryce McFerson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WASHINGTON
0%
MARYLAND
100%
WASHINGTON
--
MARYLAND
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
70.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-42.0
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +42.0 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WASH -42.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WASH)
WASH By 1-6 points
0.4%
WASH By 7-13 points
1.5%
MD By 1-6 points
0.1%
MD By 7-13 points
0.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Washington
56
WASHINGTON
Maryland
14
MARYLAND
Simulated Score
Washington
31
WASHINGTON
Maryland
27
MARYLAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Washington
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Washington
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Washington (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -42.0
C
Sim
Washington (-0)
Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 70.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2025
WASH @ MD
24 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+37.4% more
Washington: 153.0
vs
Maryland: 95.8
First Downs (L5)
+17.4% more
Washington: 21.5
vs
Maryland: 17.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+17.0% more
Washington: 0.5
vs
Maryland: 0.3
Total Yards (L5)
+11.6% more
Washington: 395.6
vs
Maryland: 349.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
WASH Score
56.0
24
MD Score
14.0
20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
17.8 / 21.5
18.0 / 28.0
Rushing Yards
95.8 / 153.0
55.0 / 115.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.3 / 0.5
0.53 / 0.42
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
349.7 / 395.6
274.0 / 390.0
Turnovers
0.8 / 0.3
1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WASH
Advantage
3-2-0
(60.0%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -11.6
MD
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WASH
1-4-0
(20.0%)
Margin: 8.2
ATS +/-: -11.6
MD
Advantage
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 0.2
ATS +/-: -7.1
⚖️ Over/Under
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0%
Total +/-: -8.5
MD
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +6.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MD
WASH
MD
WASH
ML
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
80%
4-1
ATS
0%
0-5
80%
4-1
0%
0-5
40%
2-3
TTL
60%
3-2
80%
4-1
40%
2-3
40%
2-3
Contextual Game News
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
USC Linebackers Shine in Win Over Washington, Three Earn Game Ba…
From Muay Thai to the Gridiron: Mason Rivera's Unlikely Path to …
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
Iowa's Big Ten Championship Hopes Remain Alive Despite Ohio Stat…