Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Boise St @ Notre Dame BOIS @ ND

BOISE STATE

BOISE STBOIS

3-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Notre Dame Stadium
View Odds Details →

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

2-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Oscar Doyle
KEY GAME

Oscar Doyle

#37 | Punter
@
Erik Schmidt
KEY GAME

Erik Schmidt

#18 | Punter
Player
Oscar Doyle None-None
Erik Schmidt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOISE ST
100%
📊
NOTRE DAME
0%
BOISE ST --
NOTRE DAME --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
95.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NOTRE DAME
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Notre Dame)
Boise StBOIS (-3.5) 0 Notre DameND (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Boise St Cover

11.2%

Notre Dame Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ND -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ND)

BOIS By 1-6 points

5.9%

BOIS By 7-13 points

3.2%

ND By 1-6 points

10.7%

ND By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
39
BOISE STATE
56
NOTRE DAME
Simulated Score
20
BOISE STATE
31
NOTRE DAME
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Notre Dame Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Notre Dame (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 95.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 BOIS @ ND 7 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.5% more
Boise State: 210.7 vs Notre Dame: 182.3
Turnovers (L5) +13.0% more
Boise State: 0.9 vs Notre Dame: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BOIS Score 39.0 7
ND Score 56.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.5 / 23.7 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 182.3 / 210.7 200.0 / 100.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.4
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 496.4 / 502.8 389.0 / 315.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 0.9 0.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
19%MONEY81%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BOIS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
ND Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BOIS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.8 ATS +/-: +5.7
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BOIS
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +0.5
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ND
BOIS
ND
BOIS
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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