Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ Northwestern ULM @ NU

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

3-1  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 3:30 PM ET
Northwestern Medicine Field at Martin Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTHWESTERN

NORTHWESTERNNU

2-2  |  Home

42
Key Game
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
@
Callen Campbell
KEY GAME

Callen Campbell

#44 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Makenzie Ryan None-None
Callen Campbell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
NORTHWESTERN
0%
UL MONROE --
NORTHWESTERN --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
129.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-17.0
NORTHWESTERN
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +17.0 points (Northwestern)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 NorthwesternNU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

11.2%

Northwestern Cover

88.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around NU -17.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NU)

ULM By 1-6 points

5.9%

ULM By 7-13 points

3.2%

NU By 1-6 points

10.7%

NU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
56
UL MONROE
73
NORTHWESTERN
Simulated Score
17
UL MONROE
31
NORTHWESTERN
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Northwestern Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Northwestern Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -17.0
C
Sim Northwestern (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 129.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 ULM @ NU 7 - 42
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +23.2% more
Northwestern: 1.5 vs UL Monroe: 1.3
First Downs (L5) +13.0% more
Northwestern: 19.3 vs UL Monroe: 17.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +15.4% more
UL Monroe: 201.5 vs Northwestern: 170.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 56.0 7
NU Score 73.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.3 / 17.1 26.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 170.4 / 201.5 246.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.65 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.6 / 0.41
Total Yards 335.1 / 346.2 515.0 / 273.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
91%MONEY9%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
NU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
NU Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 16.3 ATS +/-: +17.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
NU
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +1.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NU
ULM
NU
ULM
ML
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
33% 1-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
TTL
100% 3-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Brent Venables Embraces Red River Rivalry Despite Struggles Agai…
si 1 day, 9 hours ago
Jedd Fisch Hints at Offensive Line Shakeup as Landen Hatchett Ne…
yahoo 2 days, 9 hours ago
Ryan Field Reopens to Rave Reviews from National College Footbal…
dailynorthwestern 3 days, 22 hours ago
Lamar Cardinals Soar Past Northwestern State, 42-14, as Demons' …
abcnews 4 days, 21 hours ago
Northwestern's New Ryan Field Opens to Cheers and Concerns in Ev…
chicago_suntimes 5 days, 3 hours ago