Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Texas St @ Arkansas St TXST @ ARST

TEXAS STATE

TEXAS STTXST

3-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 4:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-4  |  Home

31
Key Game
DonTerry Russell
KEY GAME

DonTerry Russell

#5 | Defensive Lineman
@
Brandon Barnes
KEY GAME

Brandon Barnes

#8 | Safety
Player
DonTerry Russell None-None
Brandon Barnes None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS ST
0%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
100%
TEXAS ST --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
43.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-21.0
TEXAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +21.0 points (Texas State)
Texas StTXST (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas St Cover

93.3%

Arkansas St Cover

6.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TXST -21.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TXST)

TXST By 1-6 points

7.9%

TXST By 7-13 points

14.6%

ARST By 1-6 points

3.8%

ARST By 7-13 points

1.8%

AI Model Projected Score
32
TEXAS STATE
11
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
27
TEXAS STATE
31
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texas St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Sim Arkansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 43.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 TXST @ ARST 30 - 31
Oct 12, 2024 ARST @ TXST 9 - 41
Nov 18, 2023 TXST @ ARST 31 - 77
Nov 19, 2022 ARST @ TXST 13 - 16
Nov 27, 2021 TXST @ ARST 24 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.4% more
Texas State: 203.6 vs Arkansas State: 94.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +22.0% more
Texas State: 0.6 vs Arkansas State: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +21.2% more
Texas State: 428.2 vs Arkansas State: 337.3
First Downs (L5) +11.0% more
Texas State: 23.8 vs Arkansas State: 21.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXST Score 32.0 30
ARST Score 11.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 23.8 22.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 94.8 / 203.6 150.0 / 289.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 337.3 / 428.2 398.0 / 521.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.3 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
90%MONEY10%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
44%MONEY56%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.6 ATS +/-: -1.7
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TXST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.3
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
TXST
ARST
TXST
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
TTL
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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