Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / South Alabama @ Troy USA @ TROY

SOUTH ALABAMA

SOUTH ALABAMAUSA

1-4  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:00 PM ET
Veterans Memorial Stadium (AL)
View Odds Details →

TROY

TROYTROY

2-2  |  Home

31
Key Game
Aleksi Pulkkinen
KEY GAME

Aleksi Pulkkinen

#40 | Punter
@
Evan Crenshaw
KEY GAME

Evan Crenshaw

#28 | Punter
Player
Aleksi Pulkkinen None-None
Evan Crenshaw None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SOUTH ALABAMA
100%
📊
TROY
0%
SOUTH ALABAMA --
TROY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
29.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
TROY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Troy)
South AlabamaUSA (-3.5) 0 TroyTROY (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

South Alabama Cover

47.2%

Troy Cover

52.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around TROY -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TROY)

USA By 1-6 points

16.1%

USA By 7-13 points

14.6%

TROY By 1-6 points

16.7%

TROY By 7-13 points

16.1%

AI Model Projected Score
14
SOUTH ALABAMA
15
TROY
Simulated Score
24
SOUTH ALABAMA
31
TROY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Troy Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Troy Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.0
C
Sim Troy (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 29.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 USA @ TROY 24 - 31
Oct 15, 2024 TROY @ USA 9 - 25
Nov 2, 2023 USA @ TROY 10 - 28
Oct 20, 2022 TROY @ USA 10 - 6
Nov 6, 2021 USA @ TROY 24 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.2% more
South Alabama: 196.0 vs Troy: 140.8
Total Yards (L5) +20.2% more
South Alabama: 395.3 vs Troy: 315.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
USA Score 14.0 24
TROY Score 15.0 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.2 / 20.2 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 140.8 / 196.0 217.0 / 265.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.33 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 315.6 / 395.3 420.0 / 369.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
78%MONEY22%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
84%MONEY16%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
USA
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
TROY
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
USA Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 3.8 ATS +/-: +3.4
TROY
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.0 ATS +/-: +0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
USA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +14.3
TROY
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TROY
USA
TROY
USA
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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