Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Miami @ Florida St MIA @ FSU

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

4-0  |  Road

28
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

3-1  |  Home

22
Key Game
Dylan Joyce
KEY GAME

Dylan Joyce

#94 | Punter
@
Mandrell Desir
KEY GAME

Mandrell Desir

#3 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Dylan Joyce None-None
Mandrell Desir None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MIAMI
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
MIAMI --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
133.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Florida State)
MiamiMIA (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Miami Cover

30.9%

Florida St Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

MIA By 1-6 points

12.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

9.6%

FSU By 1-6 points

16.5%

FSU By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
63
MIAMI
70
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
23
MIAMI
27
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Sim Florida St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 133.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 MIA @ FSU 28 - 22
Oct 26, 2024 FSU @ MIA 14 - 36
Nov 11, 2023 MIA @ FSU 20 - 27
Nov 5, 2022 FSU @ MIA 45 - 3
Nov 13, 2021 MIA @ FSU 28 - 31
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +71.9% more
Florida State: 2.0 vs Miami: 1.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +53.6% more
Florida State: 294.9 vs Miami: 191.9
Total Yards (L5) +19.0% more
Florida State: 543.7 vs Miami: 456.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIA Score 63.0 28
FSU Score 70.0 22
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.9 / 24.6 28.0 / 14.0
Rushing Yards 294.9 / 191.9 132.0 / 97.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 543.7 / 456.8 404.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.1 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
87%MONEY13%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
MIA
FSU
MIA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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