Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Minnesota @ Ohio State MINN @ OSU

MINNESOTA

MINNESOTAMINN

3-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Oct 4 • 7:30 PM ET
Ohio Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

4-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Adam Kissayi
KEY GAME

Adam Kissayi

#98 | Defensive Lineman
@
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
Player
Adam Kissayi None-None
Joe McGuire None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MINNESOTA
100%
📊
OHIO STATE
0%
MINNESOTA --
OHIO STATE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.0 points (Ohio State)
MinnesotaMINN (-3.5) 0 Ohio StateOSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Minnesota Cover

1.1%

Ohio State Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OSU -32.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

MINN By 1-6 points

0.7%

MINN By 7-13 points

0.2%

OSU By 1-6 points

2.2%

OSU By 7-13 points

5.9%

AI Model Projected Score
10
MINNESOTA
42
OHIO STATE
Simulated Score
17
MINNESOTA
38
OHIO STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio State Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Sim Ohio State (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 4, 2025 MINN @ OSU 3 - 42
Nov 18, 2023 MINN @ OSU 3 - 37
Sep 2, 2021 OSU @ MINN 45 - 31
Oct 13, 2018 MINN @ OSU 14 - 30
Nov 7, 2015 MINN @ OSU 14 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +47.2% more
Ohio State: 178.7 vs Minnesota: 121.4
Turnovers (L5) +18.0% more
Ohio State: 1.1 vs Minnesota: 0.9
Total Yards (L5) +17.1% more
Ohio State: 445.1 vs Minnesota: 380.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +11.0% more
Ohio State: 0.6 vs Minnesota: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MINN Score 10.0 3
OSU Score 42.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.7 / 21.4 21.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 178.7 / 121.4 133.0 / 68.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.7 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 445.1 / 380.2 474.0 / 162.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
8%MONEY92%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MINN
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +5.0
OSU
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
⚖️ Over/Under
MINN
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +1.9
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OSU
MINN
OSU
MINN
ML
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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