Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Western KY @ Delaware WKU @ DEL

WESTERN KENTUCKY

WESTERN KYWKU

4-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Fri, Oct 3 • 7:00 PM ET
Delaware Stadium
View Odds Details →

DELAWARE

DELAWAREDEL

3-1  |  Home

24
Key Game
Zach Smith
KEY GAME

Zach Smith

#20 | Linebacker
@
Trace Scott III
KEY GAME

Trace Scott III

#33 | Defensive Tackle
Player
Zach Smith None-None
Trace Scott III None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WESTERN KY
100%
📊
DELAWARE
0%
WESTERN KY --
DELAWARE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
85.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.0
DELAWARE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.0 points (Delaware)
Western KYWKU (-3.5) 0 DelawareDEL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Western KY Cover

30.9%

Delaware Cover

69.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DEL -7.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DEL)

WKU By 1-6 points

12.9%

WKU By 7-13 points

9.6%

DEL By 1-6 points

16.5%

DEL By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
39
WESTERN KENTUCKY
46
DELAWARE
Simulated Score
17
WESTERN KENTUCKY
38
DELAWARE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Delaware Loss
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Delaware (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Sim Delaware (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 85.0
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Oct 3, 2025 WKU @ DEL 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.4% more
Delaware: 143.8 vs Western Kentucky: 126.8
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Western Kentucky: 1.2 vs Delaware: 1.0
Total Yards (L5) +11.6% more
Western Kentucky: 420.2 vs Delaware: 371.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WKU Score 39.0 27
DEL Score 46.0 24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.9 / 22.4 27.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 143.8 / 126.8 121.0 / 108.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.56 / 0.64
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 371.3 / 420.2 435.0 / 338.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 1.2 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
55%MONEY45%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
85%MONEY15%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WKU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
DEL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WKU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -19.8 ATS +/-: -10.6
DEL Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.2 ATS +/-: -1.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WKU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.5
DEL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DEL
WKU
DEL
WKU
ML
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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