Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Hawai'i @ Air Force HAW @ AFA

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

3-2  |  Road

44
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:00 PM ET
Falcon Stadium
View Odds Details →

AIR FORCE

AIR FORCEAFA

1-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Josh Sagapolutele
KEY GAME

Josh Sagapolutele

#91 | Defensive Lineman
@
Jacob Medina
KEY GAME

Jacob Medina

#39 | Place kicker
Player
Josh Sagapolutele None-None
Jacob Medina None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
HAWAI'I
100%
📊
AIR FORCE
0%
HAWAI'I --
AIR FORCE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
72.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-52.0
AIR FORCE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +52.0 points (Air Force)
Hawai'iHAW (-3.5) 0 Air ForceAFA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Hawai'i Cover

0.0%

Air Force Cover

100.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around AFA -52.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (AFA)

HAW By 1-6 points

0.0%

HAW By 7-13 points

0.0%

AFA By 1-6 points

0.0%

AFA By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
10
HAWAI'I
62
AIR FORCE
Simulated Score
31
HAWAI'I
17
AIR FORCE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Air Force Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Air Force (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -52.0
C
Sim Hawai'i (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 72.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 HAW @ AFA 44 - 35
Nov 11, 2023 AFA @ HAW 13 - 27
Oct 19, 2019 AFA @ HAW 56 - 26
Oct 22, 2016 HAW @ AFA 34 - 27
Oct 31, 2015 AFA @ HAW 58 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +176.8% more
Air Force: 268.7 vs Hawai'i: 97.1
Total Yards (L5) +26.4% more
Air Force: 440.1 vs Hawai'i: 348.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +17.0% more
Air Force: 0.6 vs Hawai'i: 0.4
First Downs (L5) +11.1% more
Air Force: 22.7 vs Hawai'i: 20.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HAW Score 10.0 44
AFA Score 62.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.7 / 20.5 17.0 / 26.0
Rushing Yards 268.7 / 97.1 216.0 / 78.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.74
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 440.1 / 348.3 494.0 / 535.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 2.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
AFA Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
AFA Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 9.0 ATS +/-: -0.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
AFA
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
AFA
HAW
AFA
HAW
ML
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
ATS
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
TTL
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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