KANSAS CITY
ROYALSKC
81-80 | Road
9
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
76-85 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Luinder Avila
#58 | SP@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luinder Avila | None-None | 1.29 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.19 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.29 Ldr
ERA
3.19
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
53%
ATHLETICS
47%
ROYALS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Athletics)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)
KC By 1-2 runs
16.6%
KC By 3-4 runs
11.0%
ATH By 1-2 runs
19.5%
ATH By 3-4 runs
15.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Kansas City
4.93
KANSAS CITY
Athletics
5.79
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Kansas City
3
KANSAS CITY
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Athletics
Loss
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Athletics
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
ATH @ KC
2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026
ATH @ KC
7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026
ATH @ KC
3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026
ATH @ KC
5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026
KC @ ATH
3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City
KC
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲
4.31
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲
.719
170
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+44.0% more
Athletics: 0.8
vs
Kansas City: 0.3
Walks (L5)
+42.5% more
Athletics: 3.9
vs
Kansas City: 2.7
Home Runs (Season)
+14.1% more
Athletics: 194.0
vs
Kansas City: 170.0
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.2% more
Kansas City: 8.5
vs
Athletics: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
KC Score
4.9
9
ATH Score
5.8
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.3
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.8 / 7.8
7.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 0.6
1.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.5
8.0 / 14.0
Total Bases
11.7 / 11.6
12.0 / 28.0
Walks
3.9 / 2.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
Advantage
69-93-0
(42.6%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
KC
ATH
KC
ML
59%
95-67
55%
89-72
54%
87-74
56%
90-70
ATS
52%
84-78
57%
91-70
50%
81-80
58%
93-67
TTL
54%
84-73-5
58%
90-64-7
42%
66-90-5
54%
83-70-7
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