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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

87-74  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
Fenway Park
View Odds Details →

BOSTON

RED SOXBOS

88-73  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
@
Greg Weissert
STARTING PITCHER

Greg Weissert

#57 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
Greg Weissert None-None 2.82 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.82
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
49%
📊
RED SOX
51%
TIGERS --
RED SOX --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 78%
Under 0 22%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 Red SoxBOS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

58.0%

Red Sox Cover

42.0%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.5%

DET By 3-4 runs

15.8%

BOS By 1-2 runs

16.8%

BOS By 3-4 runs

11.2%

AI Model Projected Score
4.26
DETROIT
3.45
BOSTON
Simulated Score
4
DETROIT
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim Red Sox Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
A
Sim Red Sox (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
B
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
May 6, 2026 BOS @ DET 4 - 0
May 5, 2026 BOS @ DET 10 - 3
May 4, 2026 BOS @ DET 5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026 DET @ BOS 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Boston BOS
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.241 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720 ▲
OPS
.409
181 ▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season) +77.6% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +33.0% more
Detroit: 0.6 vs Boston: 0.3
OPS (Season) +31.1%
Detroit: 72.0% vs Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 4.3 3
BOS Score 3.5 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.4 / 0.5 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.2 / 7.4 7.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 0.3 / 0.6 2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.1 / 10.1 10.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 11.1 / 10.2 17.0 / 12.0
Walks 3.4 / 1.5 4.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
56%MONEY44%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
30%TICKETS70%
49%MONEY51%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
66%MONEY34%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS Advantage
87-77-0 (53.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
50% 80-80
54% 86-73
47% 76-87
54% 87-73
ATS
58% 93-67
64% 101-58
48% 79-84
57% 91-69
TTL
46% 72-83-5
46% 69-81-9
47% 74-83-6
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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