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CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

59-102  |  Road

8
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 3:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

66-95  |  Home

0
Probable Pitchers
Edgar Quero
STARTING PITCHER

Edgar Quero

#26 | Catcher
@
PJ Poulin
STARTING PITCHER

PJ Poulin

#50 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Edgar Quero None-None -- -- -- --
PJ Poulin None-None 3.65 -- 0.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.65
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 0.2
-- K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
45%
📊
NATIONALS
55%
WHITE SOX --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 44%
Under 0 56%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

53.6%

Nationals Cover

46.4%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHW -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHW)

CHW By 1-2 runs

19.0%

CHW By 3-4 runs

14.6%

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.8%

WSH By 3-4 runs

12.5%

AI Model Projected Score
3.77
CHICAGO
3.41
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
CHICAGO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI White Sox Win
45% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI White Sox (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 WSH @ CHW 2 - 1
Apr 25, 2026 WSH @ CHW 6 - 3
Apr 24, 2026 WSH @ CHW 4 - 5
Sep 28, 2025 CHW @ WSH 8 - 0
Sep 27, 2025 CHW @ WSH 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.826 ▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +23.0% more
Chicago: 3.9 vs Washington: 3.0
Runs per Game (Season) +15.5% more
Chicago: 6.0 vs Washington: 5.1
On-Base Pct (Season) +9.4%
Chicago: 41.5% vs Washington: 32.1%
OPS (Season) +8.2%
Chicago: 82.6% vs Washington: 74.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.8 8
WSH Score 3.4 0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.8 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.4 / 8.6 1.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 3.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.1 / 10.6 8.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 19.8 / 14.0 1.0 / 22.0
Walks 3.0 / 3.9 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
31%MONEY69%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
60%TICKETS40%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHW
WSH
CHW
ML
57% 92-69
49% 81-86
54% 87-74
56% 94-73
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
58% 96-69-2
42% 65-90-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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