TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
77-84 | Road
4
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
93-68 | Home
13
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Bryan Baker
#47 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryan Baker | None-None | 4.06 | -- | 1.1 | 3 |
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.70 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.06
ERA
Ldr 2.70
--
WHIP
--
1.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
40%
BLUE JAYS
60%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1-2 runs
16.5%
TB By 3-4 runs
10.8%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.5%
TOR By 3-4 runs
16.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.15
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
4.08
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
60% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+38.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Hits (L5)
+21.2% more
Tampa Bay: 8.2
vs
Toronto: 6.5
Total Bases (L5)
+12.2% more
Tampa Bay: 12.8
vs
Toronto: 11.2
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.9% more
Tampa Bay: 4.5
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.2
4
TOR Score
4.1
13
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.8
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.5 / 8.2
15.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.1
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.1 / 8.5
14.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
11.2 / 12.8
33.0 / 9.0
Walks
3.7 / 3.5
4.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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