NEW YORK
METSNYM
83-78 | Road
0
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
78-83 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Sean Manaea
#59 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Manaea | None-None | 5.64 | -- | 1.2 | 3 |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 2.78 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.64
ERA
Ldr 2.78
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
53%
MARLINS
47%
METS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
59%
Under 0
41%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NYM By 1-2 runs
17.1%
NYM By 3-4 runs
11.6%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.3%
MIA By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.4
NEW YORK
Miami
5.07
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
3
NEW YORK
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.7
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+61.9% more
Miami: 3.8
vs
New York: 2.4
Strikeouts (L5)
+32.5% more
Miami: 10.3
vs
New York: 7.8
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Miami: 0.5
vs
New York: 0.4
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.4
0
MIA Score
5.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.5 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.9 / 7.8
9.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
10.3 / 7.8
11.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
8.6 / 13.6
14.0 / 6.0
Walks
3.8 / 2.4
7.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48%
78-84
50%
79-80
55%
88-72
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-66
54%
86-74
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-73-5
51%
74-72-13
Contextual Game News
Yankees and Braves Urged to Cut Ties with Underperforming Stars …
Jazz Chisholm Jr. Shrugs Off Yankee Stadium Boos: 'It Didn't Hur…
Yankees' Offseason Blueprint: Securing Bednar and Blackburn Key …
Yankees' Faithful Boo as Another Season Ends in Disappointment: …
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …