TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
81-80 | Road
8
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
87-74 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Alejandro Osuna
#19 | Left Field@
STARTING PITCHER
Matt Festa
#52 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alejandro Osuna | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Matt Festa | None-None | 4.12 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.12
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
GUARDIANS
54%
RANGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TEX By 1-2 runs
16.3%
TEX By 3-4 runs
10.7%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.6%
CLE By 3-4 runs
16.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.37
TEXAS
Cleveland
4.36
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Cleveland
6
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713
▲
OPS
.696
183
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+25.4% more
Cleveland: 11.4
vs
Texas: 9.1
Errors (L5)
+22.0% more
Cleveland: 0.3
vs
Texas: 0.0
Walks (L5)
+33.1% more
Texas: 2.4
vs
Cleveland: 1.6
Home Runs (Season)
+11.5% more
Texas: 183.0
vs
Cleveland: 162.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.4
8
CLE Score
4.4
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.0
2.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 6.7
11.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.8
2.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
11.4 / 9.1
8.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
10.8 / 10.5
20.0 / 13.0
Walks
1.6 / 2.4
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
49%
80-82
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
78-70-14
43%
69-90-2
55%
81-66-14
Contextual Game News
Guardians' Game 4 Pitching Edge Could Spell Trouble for White Sox
Guardians' Parker Messick Aims to Force Game 5 as Rookie Strikeo…
Trump to Honor Roger Clemens with Presidential Medal of Freedom
Trump Surprises Clemens with Medal of Freedom Announcement at Te…
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …