Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Cubs STL @ CHC

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

78-82  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

90-70  |  Home

7
Probable Pitchers
Matt Svanson
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Svanson

#49 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Matt Svanson None-None 1.98 -- 1.0 2
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.64 -- 1.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.98 Ldr ERA 2.64
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
2 K (Strikeouts) 2
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
43%
📊
CUBS
57%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.4 points (Chicago)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

19.6%

Cubs Cover

80.4%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -3.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

STL By 1-2 runs

9.4%

STL By 3-4 runs

4.5%

CHC By 1-2 runs

17.6%

CHC By 3-4 runs

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
2.68
ST. LOUIS
6.11
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
3
ST. LOUIS
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -3.4
D
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +200.0% more
Chicago: 2.5 vs St. Louis: 0.5
Total Bases (L5) +64.4% more
Chicago: 19.4 vs St. Louis: 11.8
Hits (L5) +21.1% more
Chicago: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 7.9
Strikeouts (L5) +18.2% more
Chicago: 9.5 vs St. Louis: 8.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 2.7 3
CHC Score 6.1 7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.9 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.5 / 7.9 10.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 2.5 / 0.5 4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.0 13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 19.4 / 11.8 26.0 / 13.0
Walks 1.8 / 2.9 3.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
9%MONEY91%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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