TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
77-83 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
92-68 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Garrett Cleavinger
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Trey Yesavage
#39 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Cleavinger | None-None | 2.35 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Trey Yesavage | None-None | 3.21 | -- | 5.0 | 5 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.35 Ldr
ERA
3.21
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 5.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 5
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
41%
BLUE JAYS
59%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TB By 1-2 runs
17.8%
TB By 3-4 runs
12.5%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.5
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
3.85
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
C
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+55.0% more
Tampa Bay: 0.8
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Hits (L5)
+29.6% more
Tampa Bay: 8.8
vs
Toronto: 6.2
Total Bases (L5)
+17.1% more
Tampa Bay: 13.7
vs
Toronto: 11.3
Strikeouts (L5)
+12.7% more
Tampa Bay: 8.8
vs
Toronto: 7.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
1
TOR Score
3.9
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
6.2 / 8.8
7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.6 / 8.8
12.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.3 / 13.7
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
3.5 / 3.7
4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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