Home / MLB Projections MLB / White Sox @ Nationals CHW @ WSH

CHICAGO

WHITE SOXCHW

59-101  |  Road

5
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 4:05 PM ET
Nationals Park
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

65-95  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Sean Burke
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Burke

#59 | Starting Pitcher
@
Clayton Beeter
STARTING PITCHER

Clayton Beeter

#39 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Sean Burke None-None 4.22 -- 4.1 10
Clayton Beeter None-None 4.26 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
4.22 Ldr ERA 4.26
-- WHIP --
4.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
10 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
46%
📊
NATIONALS
54%
WHITE SOX --
NATIONALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.9
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.9 points (Washington)
White SoxCHW (-3.5) 0 NationalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

White Sox Cover

41.3%

Nationals Cover

58.7%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -0.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

CHW By 1-2 runs

16.6%

CHW By 3-4 runs

11.0%

WSH By 1-2 runs

19.5%

WSH By 3-4 runs

16.0%

AI Model Projected Score
3.2
CHICAGO
4.08
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Nationals Win
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Nationals Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.9
B
Sim Nationals (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 26, 2026 WSH @ CHW 2 - 1
Apr 25, 2026 WSH @ CHW 6 - 3
Apr 24, 2026 WSH @ CHW 4 - 5
Sep 28, 2025 CHW @ WSH 8 - 0
Sep 27, 2025 CHW @ WSH 5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHW
vs
Washington WSH
1
Games Played
▲ 162
6.00 ▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.324 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.415 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .423
.826 ▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲ 210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season) +20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0 vs Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5) +183.0% more
Washington: 3.2 vs Chicago: 1.1
Errors (L5) +138.0% more
Washington: 1.5 vs Chicago: 0.2
Total Bases (L5) +68.2% more
Washington: 20.2 vs Chicago: 12.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHW Score 3.2 5
WSH Score 4.1 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.5 / 0.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.6 / 7.4 9.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 3.2 / 1.1 3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts 9.2 / 9.9 12.0 / 12.0
Total Bases 20.2 / 12.0 19.0 / 18.0
Walks 4.0 / 3.8 1.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
41%MONEY59%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW Advantage
88-79-0 (52.7%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8% Total +/-: +0.9
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHW
WSH
CHW
ML
57% 92-69
49% 81-86
54% 87-74
56% 94-73
ATS
58% 93-68
59% 99-68
57% 91-70
56% 93-74
TTL
50% 77-78-6
58% 96-69-2
42% 65-90-6
51% 84-81-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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