NEW YORK
METSNYM
82-78 | Road
5
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
78-82 | Home
0
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Eric Wagaman
#39 | First Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Michael Petersen
#49 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Wagaman | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Michael Petersen | None-None | 4.00 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
METS
52%
MARLINS
48%
METS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
NYM By 1-2 runs
14.5%
NYM By 3-4 runs
8.7%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
New York
4.03
NEW YORK
Miami
5.7
MIAMI
Simulated Score
New York
4
NEW YORK
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
B
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.7
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 9, 2026
NYM @ MIA
15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026
NYM @ MIA
7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026
NYM @ MIA
9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026
MIA @ NYM
2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
MIA @ NYM
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York
NYM
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.705
OPS
▲
.727
204
▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+34.3% more
Miami: 2.7
vs
New York: 2.0
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Miami: 0.8
vs
New York: 0.6
Runs per Game (Season)
+2.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
New York: 4.3
OPS (Season)
+2.2%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
New York: 70.5%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NYM Score
4.0
5
MIA Score
5.7
0
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 7.8
1.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.6
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 9.1
15.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 13.9
1.0 / 13.0
Walks
2.7 / 2.0
6.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0
(45.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7%
Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48%
78-84
50%
79-80
55%
88-72
48%
76-83
ATS
56%
91-71
58%
93-66
54%
86-74
49%
78-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
55%
80-66-13
53%
82-73-5
51%
74-72-13
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