TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
81-79 | Road
2
CLEVELAND
GUARDIANSCLE
86-74 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jacob Latz
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Cade Smith
#36 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacob Latz | None-None | 2.84 | -- | 5.1 | 6 |
| Cade Smith | None-None | 2.93 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.84 Ldr
ERA
2.93
--
WHIP
--
5.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.2
6 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
47%
GUARDIANS
53%
RANGERS
--
GUARDIANS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Cleveland)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)
TEX By 1-2 runs
17.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
12.0%
CLE By 1-2 runs
19.2%
CLE By 3-4 runs
15.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
3.54
TEXAS
Cleveland
4.08
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Cleveland
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Guardians
Win
53% Win Prob
D
Sim
Guardians
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Guardians (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Jul 1, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026
TEX @ CLE
4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026
TEX @ CLE
6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026
CLE @ TEX
0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026
CLE @ TEX
6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Cleveland
CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲
4.19
.242
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713
▲
OPS
.696
183
▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+32.0% more
Cleveland: 0.4
vs
Texas: 0.1
Walks (L5)
+14.4% more
Cleveland: 2.4
vs
Texas: 2.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+10.2% more
Cleveland: 10.6
vs
Texas: 9.6
Hits (L5)
+13.4% more
Texas: 7.1
vs
Cleveland: 6.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
3.5
2
CLE Score
4.1
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.1 / 7.1
6.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.8 / 0.8
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
10.6 / 9.6
13.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
10.7 / 10.3
11.0 / 11.0
Walks
2.4 / 2.1
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
86-79-0
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
CLE
Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54%
87-74
53%
86-76
49%
80-82
57%
91-70
ATS
58%
93-68
57%
92-70
59%
95-67
61%
98-63
TTL
55%
88-71-2
53%
78-70-14
43%
69-90-2
55%
81-66-14
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