Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Athletics KC @ ATH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

80-80  |  Road

4
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

76-84  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha None-None 3.86 -- 6.0 5
Hogan Harris None-None 3.20 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.86 ERA Ldr 3.20
-- WHIP --
6.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 1.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
53%
📊
ATHLETICS
48%
ROYALS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 40%
Under 0 60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Athletics)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

35.0%

Athletics Cover

65.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

KC By 1-2 runs

14.9%

KC By 3-4 runs

9.1%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.6%

AI Model Projected Score
4.57
KANSAS CITY
6.11
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
KANSAS CITY
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Loss
48% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Athletics (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .719
170
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +28.5% more
Athletics: 3.3 vs Kansas City: 2.6
Home Runs (Season) +14.1% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Hits (L5) +12.2% more
Athletics: 8.6 vs Kansas City: 7.7
Total Bases (L5) +9.8% more
Athletics: 13.6 vs Kansas City: 12.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.6 4
ATH Score 6.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 0.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.6 / 7.7 6.0 / 8.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 1.0 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.9 / 9.2 7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.6 / 12.4 8.0 / 10.0
Walks 3.3 / 2.6 5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
53%MONEY47%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
84%MONEY16%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
KC
ATH
KC
ML
59% 95-67
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
58% 90-64-7
42% 66-90-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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