Home / MLB Projections MLB / Cardinals @ Cubs STL @ CHC

ST. LOUIS

CARDINALSSTL

78-81  |  Road

1
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 2:20 PM ET
Wrigley Field
View Odds Details →

CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

89-70  |  Home

12
Probable Pitchers
Gordon Graceffo
STARTING PITCHER

Gordon Graceffo

#44 | Relief Pitcher
@
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Gordon Graceffo None-None 6.28 -- 0.1 1
Caleb Thielbar None-None 2.37 -- 0.1 1
None-None W-L None-None
6.28 ERA Ldr 2.37
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
CARDINALS
43%
📊
CUBS
57%
CARDINALS --
CUBS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 58%
Under 0 42%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Chicago)
CardinalsSTL (-3.5) 0 CubsCHC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cardinals Cover

35.8%

Cubs Cover

64.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CHC -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

STL By 1-2 runs

15.1%

STL By 3-4 runs

9.3%

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

CHC By 3-4 runs

17.4%

AI Model Projected Score
3.41
ST. LOUIS
4.87
CHICAGO
Simulated Score
4
ST. LOUIS
5
CHICAGO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
57% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
B
Sim Cubs (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.3
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 16, 2026 STL @ CHC 11 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 STL @ CHC 8 - 4
Aug 14, 2026 STL @ CHC 0 - 3
Jul 30, 2026 CHC @ STL 4 - 2
Jul 29, 2026 CHC @ STL 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
St. Louis STL
vs
Chicago CHC
162 ▲
Games Played
2
4.44 ▲
Runs / Game
0.50
.239 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.129
.313 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.229
.378 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.145
.691 ▲
OPS
.374
167 ▲
Home Runs
0
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +99.0% more
Chicago: 1.8 vs St. Louis: 0.8
Home Runs (Season) +100.0% more
St. Louis: 167.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +88.7% more
St. Louis: 4.4 vs Chicago: 0.5
Errors (L5) +85.0% more
St. Louis: 1.4 vs Chicago: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STL Score 3.4 1
CHC Score 4.9 12
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 1.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.3 / 9.3 12.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 1.8 / 0.8 4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 7.2 / 8.5 14.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 15.6 / 14.7 27.0 / 6.0
Walks 1.7 / 2.8 2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
16%TICKETS84%
25%MONEY75%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
29%TICKETS71%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
60%MONEY40%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STL
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STL Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9% Total +/-: +0.7
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CHC
STL
CHC
STL
ML
58% 93-68
53% 85-74
51% 82-79
52% 84-77
ATS
61% 97-63-1
56% 89-70
47% 75-85-1
53% 85-76
TTL
52% 81-74-6
46% 68-81-10
46% 72-83-6
50% 76-75-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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