CHICAGO
WHITE SOXCHW
58-101 | Road
10
WASHINGTON
NATIONALSWSH
65-94 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Taylor
#31 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Orlando Ribalta
#64 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grant Taylor | None-None | 4.91 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Orlando Ribalta | None-None | 7.03 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.91 Ldr
ERA
7.03
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
WHITE SOX
45%
NATIONALS
55%
WHITE SOX
--
NATIONALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
60%
Under 0
40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Washington)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around WSH -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)
CHW By 1-2 runs
15.3%
CHW By 3-4 runs
9.6%
WSH By 1-2 runs
19.7%
WSH By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Chicago
2.63
CHICAGO
Washington
4
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
Chicago
3
CHICAGO
Washington
5
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Nationals
Loss
55% Win Prob
D
Sim
Nationals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.4
B
Sim
Nationals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.6
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 26, 2026
WSH @ CHW
2 - 1
Apr 25, 2026
WSH @ CHW
6 - 3
Apr 24, 2026
WSH @ CHW
4 - 5
Sep 28, 2025
CHW @ WSH
8 - 0
Sep 27, 2025
CHW @ WSH
5 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago
CHW
vs
Washington
WSH
1
Games Played
▲
162
6.00
▲
Runs / Game
5.07
.324
▲
Avg (AVG)
.246
.415
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.321
.412
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.423
.826
▲
OPS
.744
1
Home Runs
▲
210
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+20900.0% more
Washington: 210.0
vs
Chicago: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+109.0% more
Washington: 1.8
vs
Chicago: 0.7
Total Bases (L5)
+67.8% more
Washington: 14.3
vs
Chicago: 8.5
Hits (L5)
+42.4% more
Washington: 7.9
vs
Chicago: 5.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
CHW Score
2.6
10
WSH Score
4.0
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.2
4.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.9 / 5.5
13.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.8 / 0.7
6.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.8 / 9.3
10.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 8.5
32.0 / 19.0
Walks
5.0 / 5.2
2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHW
Advantage
88-79-0
(52.7%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHW
Advantage
(58.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
WSH
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHW
96-69-2
O: 58.2% / U: 41.8%
Total +/-: +0.9
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8%
Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
CHW
WSH
CHW
ML
57%
92-69
49%
81-86
54%
87-74
56%
94-73
ATS
58%
93-68
59%
99-68
57%
91-70
56%
93-74
TTL
50%
77-78-6
58%
96-69-2
42%
65-90-6
51%
84-81-2
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