TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
77-82 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
91-68 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Richie Palacios
#1 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Richie Palacios | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Brendon Little | None-None | 3.07 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.07
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
41%
BLUE JAYS
59%
RAYS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
56%
Under 0
44%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TB By 3-4 runs
16.7%
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
4.55
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
3.39
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
3
TAMPA BAY
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
41% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 7.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 20, 2026
TOR @ TB
5 - 1
Aug 19, 2026
TOR @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 18, 2026
TOR @ TB
10 - 5
Jul 23, 2026
TB @ TOR
1 - 3
Jul 22, 2026
TB @ TOR
4 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.247
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.728
▲
OPS
.692
169
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+74.3% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Hits (L5)
+43.1% more
Tampa Bay: 10.2
vs
Toronto: 5.8
Walks (L5)
+33.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.1
vs
Toronto: 2.7
Total Bases (L5)
+24.1% more
Tampa Bay: 14.5
vs
Toronto: 11.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
4.6
2
TOR Score
3.4
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 1.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
5.8 / 10.2
7.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.8
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 9.6
8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.0 / 14.5
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
2.7 / 4.1
5.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TB
TOR
TB
ML
46%
74-87
58%
95-68
50%
80-80
58%
95-68
ATS
56%
90-71
60%
97-66
49%
79-81
55%
90-73
TTL
51%
80-76-5
47%
73-81-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-75-10
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