DETROIT
TIGERSDET
86-73 | Road
3
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
87-72 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 3.47 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.17 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.47
ERA
Ldr 1.17
--
WHIP
--
1.2 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
49%
RED SOX
51%
TIGERS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
67%
Under 0
33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.1
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.1 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -1.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.7%
DET By 3-4 runs
16.6%
BOS By 1-2 runs
16.0%
BOS By 3-4 runs
10.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
4.67
DETROIT
Boston
3.55
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
49% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.1
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.2
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 6, 2026
BOS @ DET
4 - 0
May 5, 2026
BOS @ DET
10 - 3
May 4, 2026
BOS @ DET
5 - 4
Apr 20, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 8
Apr 19, 2026
DET @ BOS
6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.241
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.400
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.720
▲
OPS
.409
181
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.9% more
Detroit: 181.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+77.6% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Boston: 1.0
Home Runs (L5)
+53.6% more
Detroit: 1.4
vs
Boston: 0.6
OPS (Season)
+31.1%
Detroit: 72.0%
vs
Boston: 40.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
4.7
3
BOS Score
3.6
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.8 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
8.3 / 7.2
10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.4
0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.0 / 8.4
12.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
12.1 / 12.5
15.0 / 12.0
Walks
3.3 / 3.3
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
DET
BOS
DET
ML
50%
80-80
54%
86-73
47%
76-87
54%
87-73
ATS
58%
93-67
64%
101-58
48%
79-84
57%
91-69
TTL
46%
72-83-5
46%
69-81-9
47%
74-83-6
46%
69-81-10
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