Home / MLB Projections MLB / Mets @ Marlins NYM @ MIA

NEW YORK

METSNYM

82-77  |  Road

2
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET
loanDepot park
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MARLINSMIA

77-82  |  Home

6
Probable Pitchers
Luis Torrens
STARTING PITCHER

Luis Torrens

#13 | Catcher
@
Tyler Phillips
STARTING PITCHER

Tyler Phillips

#30 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luis Torrens None-None -- -- -- --
Tyler Phillips None-None 2.82 -- 1.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 2.82
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 1.1
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
METS
53%
📊
MARLINS
47%
METS --
MARLINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 60%
Under 0 40%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Miami)
MetsNYM (-3.5) 0 MarlinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Mets Cover

34.0%

Marlins Cover

66.0%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NYM By 1-2 runs

14.6%

NYM By 3-4 runs

8.8%

MIA By 1-2 runs

19.7%

MIA By 3-4 runs

17.8%

AI Model Projected Score
4.04
NEW YORK
5.69
MIAMI
Simulated Score
3
NEW YORK
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marlins Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Marlins Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim Marlins (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.7
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 9, 2026 NYM @ MIA 15 - 14
Sep 8, 2026 NYM @ MIA 7 - 5
Sep 7, 2026 NYM @ MIA 9 - 4
Aug 2, 2026 MIA @ NYM 2 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 MIA @ NYM 6 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
New York NYM
vs
Miami MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.31
Runs / Game
▲ 4.41
.239
Avg (AVG)
▲ .249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .326
.395
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.705
OPS
▲ .727
204 ▲
Home Runs
168
Key Model Drivers
Runs per Game (Season) +2.3% more
Miami: 4.4 vs New York: 4.3
OPS (Season) +2.2%
Miami: 72.7% vs New York: 70.5%
On-Base Pct (Season) +1.6%
Miami: 32.6% vs New York: 31.0%
Batting Avg (Season) +1.0%
Miami: 24.9% vs New York: 23.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYM Score 4.0 2
MIA Score 5.7 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.7 / 0.9 1.0 / 0.0
Hits 7.5 / 8.6 10.0 / 6.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 1.9 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.9 / 10.7 4.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 10.5 / 15.8 16.0 / 10.0
Walks 2.6 / 2.6 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
80%MONEY20%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
MIA Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYM
MIA
NYM
ML
48% 78-84
50% 79-80
55% 88-72
48% 76-83
ATS
56% 91-71
58% 93-66
54% 86-74
49% 78-81
TTL
56% 88-69-5
55% 80-66-13
53% 82-73-5
51% 74-72-13
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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