Home / MLB Projections MLB / Rangers @ Guardians TEX @ CLE

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

80-79  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 7:10 PM ET
Progressive Field
View Odds Details →

CLEVELAND

GUARDIANSCLE

86-73  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Jakob Junis
STARTING PITCHER

Jakob Junis

#16 | Relief Pitcher
@
Matt Festa
STARTING PITCHER

Matt Festa

#52 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jakob Junis None-None 2.97 -- 0.1 1
Matt Festa None-None 4.25 -- 1.0 --
None-None W-L None-None
2.97 Ldr ERA 4.25
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
46%
📊
GUARDIANS
54%
RANGERS --
GUARDIANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 35%
Under 0 65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
CLEVELAND
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Cleveland)
RangersTEX (-3.5) 0 GuardiansCLE (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Rangers Cover

41.8%

Guardians Cover

58.2%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around CLE -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CLE)

TEX By 1-2 runs

16.7%

TEX By 3-4 runs

11.1%

CLE By 1-2 runs

19.5%

CLE By 3-4 runs

15.9%

AI Model Projected Score
3.41
TEXAS
4.24
CLEVELAND
Simulated Score
3
TEXAS
5
CLEVELAND
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Guardians Loss
54% Win Prob
D
Sim Guardians Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Guardians (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 1, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 9
Jun 30, 2026 TEX @ CLE 4 - 2
Jun 29, 2026 TEX @ CLE 6 - 3
Jun 7, 2026 CLE @ TEX 0 - 10
Jun 6, 2026 CLE @ TEX 6 - 0
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas TEX
vs
Cleveland CLE
162
Games Played
162
4.15
Runs / Game
▲ 4.19
.242 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.317 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.316
.396 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.380
.713 ▲
OPS
.696
183 ▲
Home Runs
162
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +55.8% more
Cleveland: 11.5 vs Texas: 7.4
Errors (L5) +49.0% more
Cleveland: 0.6 vs Texas: 0.1
Hits (L5) +44.8% more
Cleveland: 6.7 vs Texas: 4.6
Walks (L5) +44.4% more
Cleveland: 3.1 vs Texas: 2.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEX Score 3.4 7
CLE Score 4.2 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.6 / 0.1 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.7 / 4.6 5.0 / 12.0
Home Runs 0.8 / 0.6 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 11.4 / 9.0 9.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 11.5 / 7.4 9.0 / 16.0
Walks 3.1 / 2.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
17%TICKETS83%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
7%MONEY93%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
86-79-0 (52.1%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
CLE Advantage
(50.3%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
CLE
80-84-1
O: 48.8% / U: 51.2% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLE
TEX
CLE
TEX
ML
54% 87-74
53% 86-76
49% 80-82
57% 91-70
ATS
58% 93-68
57% 92-70
59% 95-67
61% 98-63
TTL
55% 88-71-2
53% 78-70-14
43% 69-90-2
55% 81-66-14
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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