Home / MLB Projections MLB / Royals @ Athletics KC @ ATH

KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

80-79  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Sep 26 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

75-84  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Luinder Avila
STARTING PITCHER

Luinder Avila

#58 | SP
@
Hogan Harris
STARTING PITCHER

Hogan Harris

#36 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Luinder Avila None-None 1.38 -- 0.1 --
Hogan Harris None-None 3.11 -- 2.0 2
None-None W-L None-None
1.38 Ldr ERA 3.11
-- WHIP --
0.1 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 2.0
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
53%
📊
ATHLETICS
47%
ROYALS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 50%
Under 0 50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
ATHLETICS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Athletics)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

33.5%

Athletics Cover

66.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around ATH -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATH)

KC By 1-2 runs

14.4%

KC By 3-4 runs

8.6%

ATH By 1-2 runs

19.7%

ATH By 3-4 runs

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.5
KANSAS CITY
6.2
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
6
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Athletics Win
47% Win Prob
D
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.7
C
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 20, 2026 ATH @ KC 2 - 6
Aug 19, 2026 ATH @ KC 7 - 9
Aug 18, 2026 ATH @ KC 3 - 4
Aug 17, 2026 ATH @ KC 5 - 9
Apr 30, 2026 KC @ ATH 3 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.26
Runs / Game
▲ 4.31
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.245
.316
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.402
Slugging (SLG)
.402
.718
OPS
▲ .719
170
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +110.5% more
Athletics: 4.0 vs Kansas City: 1.9
Home Runs (L5) +37.0% more
Athletics: 1.3 vs Kansas City: 0.9
Home Runs (Season) +14.1% more
Athletics: 194.0 vs Kansas City: 170.0
Errors (L5) +51.0% more
Kansas City: 0.7 vs Athletics: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 4.5 3
ATH Score 6.2 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.2 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.9 / 9.5 8.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.9 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 8.3 / 9.3 7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases 14.9 / 15.1 11.0 / 7.0
Walks 4.0 / 1.9 2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
70%MONEY30%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
39%TICKETS61%
63%MONEY37%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC Advantage
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
KC
ATH
KC
ML
59% 95-67
55% 89-72
54% 87-74
56% 90-70
ATS
52% 84-78
57% 91-70
50% 81-80
58% 93-67
TTL
54% 84-73-5
58% 90-64-7
42% 66-90-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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