Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Army @ East Carolina ARMY @ ECU

ARMY

ARMYARMY

1-2  |  Road

6
FINAL
Thu, Sep 25 • 7:30 PM ET
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
View Odds Details →

EAST CAROLINA

EAST CAROLINAECU

2-2  |  Home

28
Key Game
Lloyd Benson III
KEY GAME

Lloyd Benson III

#23 | Wide Receiver
@
Jordan Miles
KEY GAME

Jordan Miles

#43 | Linebacker
Player
Lloyd Benson III None-None
Jordan Miles None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARMY
100%
📊
EAST CAROLINA
0%
ARMY --
EAST CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-18.0
EAST CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +18.0 points (East Carolina)
ArmyARMY (-3.5) 0 East CarolinaECU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Army Cover

9.9%

East Carolina Cover

90.1%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ECU -18.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ECU)

ARMY By 1-6 points

5.3%

ARMY By 7-13 points

2.8%

ECU By 1-6 points

10.0%

ECU By 7-13 points

16.8%

AI Model Projected Score
11
ARMY
29
EAST CAROLINA
Simulated Score
20
ARMY
24
EAST CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim East Carolina Win
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI East Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -18.0
A
Sim East Carolina (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 25, 2025 ARMY @ ECU 6 - 28
Oct 19, 2024 ECU @ ARMY 28 - 45
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
East Carolina: 456.4 vs Army: 393.2
First Downs (L5) +8.2% more
East Carolina: 24.6 vs Army: 22.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +46.7% more
Army: 298.9 vs East Carolina: 159.4
Turnovers (L5) +31.3% more
Army: 1.8 vs East Carolina: 1.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARMY Score 11.0 6
ECU Score 29.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.6 / 22.7 23.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards 159.4 / 298.9 180.0 / 241.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.43 / 0.57
Total Yards 456.4 / 393.2 431.0 / 290.0
Turnovers 1.3 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
61%MONEY39%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
43%TICKETS57%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
65%MONEY35%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARMY
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
ECU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARMY Advantage
1-2-1 (33.3%)
Margin: 13.5 ATS +/-: +2.9
ECU
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -1.3 ATS +/-: -4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ARMY
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +5.0
ECU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ECU
ARMY
ECU
ARMY
ML
50% 2-2
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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