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UCF

UCFUCF

3-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Bill Snyder Family Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS STATE

KANSAS STKSU

1-3  |  Home

34
Key Game
Jayden Bellamy
KEY GAME

Jayden Bellamy

#1 | Defensive Back
@
Simon McClannan
KEY GAME

Simon McClannan

#8 | Punter
Player
Jayden Bellamy None-None
Simon McClannan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UCF
100%
📊
KANSAS ST
0%
UCF --
KANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
74.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
KANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (Kansas State)
UCFUCF (-3.5) 0 Kansas StKSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UCF Cover

0.3%

Kansas St Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KSU -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KSU)

UCF By 1-6 points

0.2%

UCF By 7-13 points

0.1%

KSU By 1-6 points

0.9%

KSU By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
18
UCF
56
KANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
24
UCF
31
KANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Kansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim Kansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 74.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 UCF @ KSU 20 - 34
Sep 23, 2023 UCF @ KSU 31 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +50.0% more
Kansas State: 1.2 vs UCF: 0.7
First Downs (L5) +36.7% more
UCF: 22.3 vs Kansas State: 14.1
Rushing Yards (L5) +35.4% more
UCF: 201.8 vs Kansas State: 130.3
Total Yards (L5) +26.9% more
UCF: 428.4 vs Kansas State: 313.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UCF Score 18.0 20
KSU Score 56.0 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.1 / 22.3 21.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 130.3 / 201.8 266.0 / 205.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.23
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.46
Total Yards 313.3 / 428.4 434.0 / 402.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 0.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
84%TICKETS16%
10%MONEY90%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UCF
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
KSU Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UCF Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.8 ATS +/-: +6.9
KSU
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +4.0
⚖️ Over/Under
UCF
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.7
KSU
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KSU
UCF
KSU
UCF
ML
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
TTL
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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