Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duke @ Syracuse DUKE @ SYR

DUKE

DUKEDUKE

2-2  |  Road

38
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
JMA Wireless Dome
View Odds Details →

SYRACUSE

SYRACUSESYR

3-1  |  Home

3
Key Game
Kade Reynoldson
KEY GAME

Kade Reynoldson

#41 | Punter
@
Rashard Perry
KEY GAME

Rashard Perry

#92 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Kade Reynoldson None-None
Rashard Perry None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUKE
0%
📊
SYRACUSE
100%
DUKE --
SYRACUSE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
104.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.0
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.0 points (Duke)
DukeDUKE (-3.5) 0 SyracuseSYR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duke Cover

55.7%

Syracuse Cover

44.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around DUKE -2.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)

DUKE By 1-6 points

16.9%

DUKE By 7-13 points

16.8%

SYR By 1-6 points

15.7%

SYR By 7-13 points

13.8%

AI Model Projected Score
53
DUKE
51
SYRACUSE
Simulated Score
24
DUKE
28
SYRACUSE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Duke Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Syracuse Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Duke (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.0
C
Sim Syracuse (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 104.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 DUKE @ SYR 38 - 3
Oct 10, 2020 DUKE @ SYR 38 - 24
Nov 16, 2019 SYR @ DUKE 49 - 6
Nov 8, 2014 DUKE @ SYR 27 - 10
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +26.1% more
Duke: 1.4 vs Syracuse: 1.1
First Downs (L5) +18.9% more
Syracuse: 26.2 vs Duke: 22.1
Total Yards (L5) +15.9% more
Syracuse: 489.7 vs Duke: 422.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUKE Score 53.0 38
SYR Score 51.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 26.2 / 22.1 19.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 128.8 / 122.0 85.0 / 235.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.46
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 489.7 / 422.5 314.0 / 503.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.4 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
21%MONEY79%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
50%MONEY50%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
74%MONEY26%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
SYR
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUKE Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.3 ATS +/-: +11.1
SYR
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: +2.9
⚖️ Over/Under
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -6.8
SYR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
SYR
DUKE
SYR
DUKE
ML
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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