Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Bowling Green @ Ohio BGSU @ OHIO

BOWLING GREEN

BOWLING GREENBGSU

2-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 12:00 PM ET
Peden Stadium
View Odds Details →

OHIO

OHIOOHIO

2-2  |  Home

35
Key Game
Brennan Ridley
KEY GAME

Brennan Ridley

#5 | Wide Receiver
@
Magnus Haines
KEY GAME

Magnus Haines

#42 | Punter
Player
Brennan Ridley None-None
Magnus Haines None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BOWLING GREEN
100%
📊
OHIO
0%
BOWLING GREEN --
OHIO --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-45.0
OHIO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +45.0 points (Ohio)
Bowling GreenBGSU (-3.5) 0 OhioOHIO (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bowling Green Cover

0.1%

Ohio Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around OHIO -45.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OHIO)

BGSU By 1-6 points

0.0%

BGSU By 7-13 points

0.0%

OHIO By 1-6 points

0.2%

OHIO By 7-13 points

0.9%

AI Model Projected Score
0
BOWLING GREEN
45
OHIO
Simulated Score
20
BOWLING GREEN
27
OHIO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Ohio Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Ohio Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Sim Ohio (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 BGSU @ OHIO 20 - 35
Sep 23, 2023 OHIO @ BGSU 38 - 7
Nov 22, 2022 BGSU @ OHIO 14 - 38
Nov 26, 2021 OHIO @ BGSU 10 - 21
Nov 28, 2020 BGSU @ OHIO 10 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.1% more
Ohio: 213.9 vs Bowling Green: 147.4
First Downs (L5) +40.6% more
Ohio: 24.0 vs Bowling Green: 17.1
Total Yards (L5) +32.4% more
Ohio: 439.7 vs Bowling Green: 332.1
Turnovers (L5) +9.0% more
Ohio: 0.9 vs Bowling Green: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BGSU Score 0.0 20
OHIO Score 45.0 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.0 / 17.1 24.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 213.9 / 147.4 231.0 / 180.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 439.7 / 332.1 439.0 / 350.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 3.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
11%MONEY89%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
60%MONEY40%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BGSU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
OHIO Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BGSU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -21.6 ATS +/-: -5.8
OHIO
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-: -1.4
⚖️ Over/Under
BGSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: -2.1
OHIO
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OHIO
BGSU
OHIO
BGSU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
ATS
25% 1-3
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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