Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Arkansas St @ UL Monroe ARST @ ULM

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-3  |  Road

16
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:00 PM ET
Malone Stadium
View Odds Details →

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

2-1  |  Home

28
Key Game
Reed Linder
KEY GAME

Reed Linder

#84 | Wide Receiver
@
Makenzie Ryan
KEY GAME

Makenzie Ryan

#47 | Punter
Player
Reed Linder None-None
Makenzie Ryan None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
0%
📊
UL MONROE
100%
ARKANSAS ST --
UL MONROE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Arkansas State)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 UL MonroeULM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

99.2%

UL Monroe Cover

0.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ARST -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

ARST By 1-6 points

1.6%

ARST By 7-13 points

4.7%

ULM By 1-6 points

0.5%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
55
ARKANSAS STATE
21
UL MONROE
Simulated Score
17
ARKANSAS STATE
28
UL MONROE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UL Monroe Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Arkansas St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
C
Sim UL Monroe (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 76.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 ARST @ ULM 16 - 28
Nov 23, 2024 ULM @ ARST 21 - 28
Oct 28, 2023 ARST @ ULM 34 - 24
Oct 1, 2022 ULM @ ARST 28 - 45
Nov 13, 2021 ARST @ ULM 27 - 24
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +19.8% more
Arkansas State: 20.7 vs UL Monroe: 16.6
Total Yards (L5) +8.5% more
Arkansas State: 357.5 vs UL Monroe: 327.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +48.8% more
UL Monroe: 202.7 vs Arkansas State: 136.2
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
UL Monroe: 1.4 vs Arkansas State: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 55.0 16
ULM Score 21.0 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.6 / 20.7 18.0 / 22.0
Rushing Yards 202.7 / 136.2 199.0 / 12.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.46 / 0.2
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 327.3 / 357.5 384.0 / 297.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
77%MONEY23%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ULM
ARST
ULM
ARST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
ATS
20% 1-4
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
80% 4-1
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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