Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Ohio State @ Washington OSU @ WASH

OHIO STATE

OHIO STATEOSU

3-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 3:30 PM ET
Husky Stadium
View Odds Details →

WASHINGTON

WASHINGTONWASH

3-0  |  Home

6
Key Game
Joe McGuire
KEY GAME

Joe McGuire

#42 | Punter
@
Luke Dunne
KEY GAME

Luke Dunne

#45 | Punter
Player
Joe McGuire None-None
Luke Dunne None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
OHIO STATE
0%
📊
WASHINGTON
100%
OHIO STATE --
WASHINGTON --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-28.0
OHIO STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +28.0 points (Ohio State)
Ohio StateOSU (-3.5) 0 WashingtonWASH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ohio State Cover

97.7%

Washington Cover

2.3%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around OSU -28.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OSU)

OSU By 1-6 points

3.8%

OSU By 7-13 points

8.8%

WASH By 1-6 points

1.4%

WASH By 7-13 points

0.5%

AI Model Projected Score
47
OHIO STATE
19
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
27
OHIO STATE
31
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Ohio State Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Washington Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Ohio State (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -28.0
C
Sim Washington (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 OSU @ WASH 24 - 6
Jan 1, 2019 WASH @ OSU 23 - 28
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +58.3% more
Ohio State: 1.2 vs Washington: 0.5
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +15.0% more
Washington: 0.7 vs Ohio State: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
OSU Score 47.0 24
WASH Score 19.0 6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.8 / 24.0 15.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 199.0 / 193.6 61.0 / 149.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.7 / 0.5 0.09 / 0.6
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.47 / 0.53
Total Yards 476.4 / 489.2 234.0 / 357.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.2 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
96%TICKETS4%
88%MONEY12%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
72%TICKETS28%
62%MONEY38%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
82%TICKETS18%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
WASH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
OSU Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 29.6 ATS +/-: +1.7
WASH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 8.2 ATS +/-: -11.6
⚖️ Over/Under
OSU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
WASH
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -8.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WASH
OSU
WASH
OSU
ML
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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