Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Liberty @ Old Dominion LIB @ ODU

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

1-3  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 6:00 PM ET
S.B. Ballard Stadium
View Odds Details →

OLD DOMINION

OLD DOMINIONODU

2-1  |  Home

21
Key Game
Ethan Crisp
KEY GAME

Ethan Crisp

#30 | Defensive Back
@
Ian Brandt
KEY GAME

Ian Brandt

#96 | Punter
Player
Ethan Crisp None-None
Ian Brandt None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LIBERTY
100%
📊
OLD DOMINION
0%
LIBERTY --
OLD DOMINION --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.0
OLD DOMINION
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.0 points (Old Dominion)
LibertyLIB (-3.5) 0 Old DominionODU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Liberty Cover

0.6%

Old Dominion Cover

99.4%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ODU -35.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ODU)

LIB By 1-6 points

0.4%

LIB By 7-13 points

0.1%

ODU By 1-6 points

1.4%

ODU By 7-13 points

4.1%

AI Model Projected Score
10
LIBERTY
45
OLD DOMINION
Simulated Score
24
LIBERTY
38
OLD DOMINION
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Old Dominion Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Old Dominion (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Sim Old Dominion (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 62.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 LIB @ ODU 7 - 21
Nov 11, 2023 ODU @ LIB 10 - 38
Oct 1, 2022 LIB @ ODU 38 - 24
Sep 18, 2021 ODU @ LIB 17 - 45
Sep 1, 2018 ODU @ LIB 10 - 52
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +44.6% more
Old Dominion: 263.9 vs Liberty: 182.5
Total Yards (L5) +43.7% more
Old Dominion: 491.0 vs Liberty: 341.6
First Downs (L5) +27.8% more
Old Dominion: 23.2 vs Liberty: 18.2
Turnovers (L5) +15.1% more
Liberty: 1.6 vs Old Dominion: 1.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LIB Score 10.0 7
ODU Score 45.0 21
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 23.2 / 18.2 25.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 263.9 / 182.5 218.0 / 133.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.43 / 0.31
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 491.0 / 341.6 489.0 / 210.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.6 4.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
14%MONEY86%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
41%TICKETS59%
80%MONEY20%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
74%TICKETS26%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
ODU
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
ODU
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -12.6 ATS +/-: -16.0
⚖️ Over/Under
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
ODU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ODU
LIB
ODU
LIB
ML
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Alabama's Cowbell Troll Headlines Top College Football Week 5 Ja…
espn 4 days, 23 hours ago
Delaware Opens CUSA Play Without Starting QB Nick Minicucci Agai…
yahoo 5 days, 23 hours ago
Liberty's Second-Half Surge Overwhelms Coastal Carolina in 34-17…
ctinsider 1 week, 6 days ago
Liberty Dominates Second Half to Spoil Chadwell's Return, Beat C…
yahoo 1 week, 6 days ago
Ryan Clark Reveals ESPN Exit Call: 'They Are Going to Let You Go'
awfulannouncing 2 weeks, 1 day ago