Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UMass @ Missouri MASS @ MIZ

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-3  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

MISSOURI

MISSOURIMIZ

4-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
@
Jason King
KEY GAME

Jason King

#25 | Linebacker
Player
Derek Morris None-None
Jason King None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UMASS
100%
📊
MISSOURI
0%
UMASS --
MISSOURI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-44.0
MISSOURI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +44.0 points (Missouri)
UMassMASS (-3.5) 0 MissouriMIZ (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UMass Cover

0.1%

Missouri Cover

99.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIZ -44.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIZ)

MASS By 1-6 points

0.1%

MASS By 7-13 points

0.0%

MIZ By 1-6 points

0.3%

MIZ By 7-13 points

1.1%

AI Model Projected Score
7
MASSACHUSETTS
51
MISSOURI
Simulated Score
10
MASSACHUSETTS
45
MISSOURI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Missouri Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Missouri Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -44.0
C
Sim Missouri (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 MASS @ MIZ 6 - 42
Oct 12, 2024 MIZ @ MASS 45 - 3
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +165.0% more
Missouri: 279.1 vs Massachusetts: 105.3
Total Yards (L5) +84.9% more
Missouri: 504.4 vs Massachusetts: 272.8
First Downs (L5) +72.4% more
Missouri: 27.5 vs Massachusetts: 16.0
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +31.0% more
Missouri: 0.6 vs Massachusetts: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MASS Score 7.0 6
MIZ Score 51.0 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 27.5 / 16.0 31.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 279.1 / 105.3 268.0 / 19.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.6 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.25
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.65 / 0.35
Total Yards 504.4 / 272.8 521.0 / 124.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
26%TICKETS74%
13%MONEY87%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
83%TICKETS17%
95%MONEY5%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MASS
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
MIZ
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MASS Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
MIZ
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 17.6 ATS +/-: +2.2
⚖️ Over/Under
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
MIZ
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +1.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIZ
MASS
MIZ
MASS
ML
80% 4-1
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
20% 1-4
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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