Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Marshall @ Louisiana MRSH @ UL

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

2-2  |  Road

51
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 8:00 PM ET
Cajun Field
View Odds Details →

LOUISIANA

LOUISIANAUL

1-3  |  Home

54
Key Game
Judah Price
KEY GAME

Judah Price

#10 | Running Back
@
Tony Sterner
KEY GAME

Tony Sterner

#95 | Place kicker
Player
Judah Price None-None
Tony Sterner None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MARSHALL
0%
📊
LOUISIANA
100%
MARSHALL --
LOUISIANA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
48.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-34.0
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +34.0 points (Marshall)
MarshallMRSH (-3.5) 0 LouisianaUL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Marshall Cover

99.2%

Louisiana Cover

0.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around MRSH -34.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MRSH By 1-6 points

1.6%

MRSH By 7-13 points

4.7%

UL By 1-6 points

0.5%

UL By 7-13 points

0.2%

AI Model Projected Score
41
MARSHALL
7
LOUISIANA
Simulated Score
24
MARSHALL
27
LOUISIANA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Marshall Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisiana Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Marshall (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -34.0
C
Sim Louisiana (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 MRSH @ UL 51 - 54
Dec 7, 2024 MRSH @ UL 31 - 3
Oct 12, 2022 UL @ MRSH 23 - 13
Dec 18, 2021 UL @ MRSH 36 - 21
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +17.6% more
Marshall: 20.3 vs Louisiana: 16.7
Total Yards (L5) +12.2% more
Marshall: 368.1 vs Louisiana: 323.3
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Marshall: 0.4 vs Louisiana: 0.3
Time of Possession (L5) +8.0% more
Marshall: 0.5 vs Louisiana: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MRSH Score 41.0 51
UL Score 7.0 54
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.7 / 20.3 29.0 / 27.0
Rushing Yards 184.4 / 194.7 264.0 / 245.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.49 / 0.51
Total Yards 323.3 / 368.1 461.0 / 503.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 1.0 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
71%TICKETS29%
69%MONEY31%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
89%MONEY11%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MRSH
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
UL Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
UL Advantage
3-1-1 (75.0%)
Margin: 9.8 ATS +/-: +7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
UL
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -3.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UL
MRSH
UL
MRSH
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
75% 3-1-1
40% 2-3
50% 2-2-1
20% 1-4
TTL
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
Hurricane Isaias Puts Bengals-Dolphins Clash on Weather Watch
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Five Burning College Football Questions Set to Be Answered This …
foxnews 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Stephen A. Smith Highlights Kirby Smart's 2-7 Record Against Ala…
newsweek 5 hours, 48 minutes ago
Arch Manning's Heisman Bid Falters as Voters Overlook Texas QB
thecomeback 11 hours, 59 minutes ago