Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Louisiana Tech @ UTEP LT @ UTEP

LOUISIANA TECH

LOUISIANA TECHLT

3-1  |  Road

30
FINAL
Sat, Sep 27 • 9:00 PM ET
Sun Bowl
View Odds Details →

UTEP

UTEPUTEP

1-3  |  Home

11
Key Game
Jaitlin Hampton
KEY GAME

Jaitlin Hampton

#18 | Defensive Back
@
Carlos Arreola
KEY GAME

Carlos Arreola

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Jaitlin Hampton None-None
Carlos Arreola None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
LOUISIANA TECH
100%
📊
UTEP
0%
LOUISIANA TECH --
UTEP --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
66.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-38.0
UTEP
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +38.0 points (UTEP)
Louisiana TechLT (-3.5) 0 UTEPUTEP (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Louisiana Tech Cover

0.3%

UTEP Cover

99.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around UTEP -38.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UTEP)

LT By 1-6 points

0.2%

LT By 7-13 points

0.1%

UTEP By 1-6 points

0.9%

UTEP By 7-13 points

2.8%

AI Model Projected Score
14
LOUISIANA TECH
52
UTEP
Simulated Score
24
LOUISIANA TECH
27
UTEP
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI UTEP Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UTEP Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Sim UTEP (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 66.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2025 LT @ UTEP 30 - 11
Oct 22, 2024 UTEP @ LT 10 - 14
Sep 29, 2023 LT @ UTEP 24 - 10
Oct 8, 2022 UTEP @ LT 31 - 41
Oct 16, 2021 LT @ UTEP 3 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +122.0% more
UTEP: 1.7 vs Louisiana Tech: 0.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.5% more
Louisiana Tech: 156.1 vs UTEP: 85.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
LT Score 14.0 30
UTEP Score 52.0 11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 17.6 15.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 85.1 / 156.1 126.0 / 95.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.35 / 0.29
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 363.9 / 349.0 273.0 / 232.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 0.4 5.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
76%TICKETS24%
60%MONEY40%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
52%MONEY48%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
42%MONEY58%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
LT Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
LT Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 7.0 ATS +/-: +9.1
UTEP
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -25.0 ATS +/-: -8.2
⚖️ Over/Under
LT
4-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +13.0
UTEP
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UTEP
LT
UTEP
LT
ML
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
80% 4-1
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-5
75% 3-1
0% 0-5
50% 2-2
TTL
100% 5-0
50% 2-2
60% 3-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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