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PHILADELPHIA

FLYERSPHI

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1
FINAL
Thu, Sep 25 • 7:00 PM ET
Giant Center
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WASHINGTON

CAPITALSWSH

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5
AI Model Win Probability
FLYERS
100%
📊
CAPITALS
0%
FLYERS --
CAPITALS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Washington)
FlyersPHI (-3.5) 0 CapitalsWSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Flyers Cover

37.1%

Capitals Cover

62.9%

+6+4+20-2-4-6
Distribution centered around WSH -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

PHI By 1 goal

14.1%

PHI By 2-3 goals

12.1%

WSH By 1 goal

19.5%

WSH By 2-3 goals

25.9%

AI Model Projected Score
2.88
PHILADELPHIA
3.54
WASHINGTON
Simulated Score
3
PHILADELPHIA
4
WASHINGTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Capitals Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Capitals Win
50% Win Prob
B
Puck Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -0.7
D
Sim Capitals (+0) Win
Proj Goals: -1.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 6.4
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 7.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Mar 31, 2026 PHI @ WSH 4 - 6
Mar 11, 2026 WSH @ PHI 1 - 4
Feb 25, 2026 PHI @ WSH 1 - 3
Feb 3, 2026 WSH @ PHI 2 - 4
Sep 25, 2025 PHI @ WSH 1 - 5
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +38.4% more
Washington: 32.8 vs Philadelphia: 23.7
Blocked Shots (L5) +21.4% more
Washington: 22.3 vs Philadelphia: 18.4
Takeaways (L5) +49.7% more
Philadelphia: 5.1 vs Washington: 2.5
Shots on Goal (L5) +22.1% more
Philadelphia: 26.6 vs Washington: 20.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 2.9 1
WSH Score 3.5 5
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
WSH
PHI
WSH
PHI
ML
100% 3-0
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
ATS
100% 3-0
25% 1-3
67% 2-1
25% 1-3
TTL
33% 1-2
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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