TAMPA BAY
RAYSTB
77-81 | Road
5
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
74-84 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kevin Kelly
#49 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Rico Garcia
#50 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Kelly | None-None | 5.21 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
| Rico Garcia | None-None | 3.00 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.21
ERA
Ldr 3.00
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
RAYS
52%
ORIOLES
48%
RAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TAMPA BAY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Tampa Bay)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TB -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TB)
TB By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TB By 3-4 runs
15.8%
BAL By 1-2 runs
16.8%
BAL By 3-4 runs
11.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Tampa Bay
3.52
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
2.72
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Tampa Bay
4
TAMPA BAY
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Rays
Loss
52% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Rays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.8
C
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.2
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 23, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 1
Aug 22, 2026
TB @ BAL
2 - 3
Aug 21, 2026
TB @ BAL
3 - 5
Aug 17, 2026
BAL @ TB
6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026
BAL @ TB
10 - 2
Season Statistics Comparison
Tampa Bay
TB
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.54
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.258
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.326
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.314
.402
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.396
.728
▲
OPS
.711
169
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+51.8% more
Tampa Bay: 1.1
vs
Baltimore: 0.5
Total Bases (L5)
+45.1% more
Tampa Bay: 13.3
vs
Baltimore: 7.3
Hits (L5)
+38.3% more
Tampa Bay: 7.9
vs
Baltimore: 4.9
Walks (L5)
+38.1% more
Tampa Bay: 4.1
vs
Baltimore: 2.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TB Score
3.5
5
BAL Score
2.7
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
1.1 / 1.2
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
4.9 / 7.9
9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs
0.5 / 1.1
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 7.9
9.0 / 13.0
Total Bases
7.3 / 13.3
21.0 / 17.0
Walks
2.5 / 4.1
2.0 / 4.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TB
Advantage
101-64-0
(61.2%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TB
Advantage
(53.3%)
Margin: 0.6
ATS +/-:
BAL
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TB
76-83-6
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: +0.6
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TB
BAL
TB
ML
53%
83-73
58%
95-68
57%
90-69
58%
95-68
ATS
61%
95-60-1
60%
97-66
57%
90-68-1
55%
90-73
TTL
54%
81-70-5
47%
73-81-9
51%
78-75-6
51%
78-75-10
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