Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Dolphins NYJ @ MIA

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

0-3  |  Road

21
FINAL
Mon, Sep 29 • 7:15 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

DOLPHINSMIA

0-3  |  Home

27
Key Game
Minkah Fitzpatrick
KEY GAME

Minkah Fitzpatrick

#29 | Safety
@
Riley Patterson
KEY GAME

Riley Patterson

#47 | Place kicker
Player
Minkah Fitzpatrick None-None
Riley Patterson None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
100%
📊
DOLPHINS
0%
JETS --
DOLPHINS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-8.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +8.5 points (Miami)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 DolphinsMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

27.3%

Dolphins Cover

72.7%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -8.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

NYJ By 1-6 points

11.8%

NYJ By 7-13 points

8.4%

MIA By 1-6 points

15.9%

MIA By 7-13 points

19.6%

AI Model Projected Score
15.31
NEW YORK
23.78
MIAMI
Simulated Score
20
NEW YORK
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Dolphins Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Dolphins Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -8.5
D
Sim Dolphins (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Dec 7, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 34 - 10
Sep 29, 2025 NYJ @ MIA 21 - 27
Jan 5, 2025 MIA @ NYJ 20 - 32
Dec 8, 2024 NYJ @ MIA 26 - 32
Dec 17, 2023 NYJ @ MIA 0 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5) +18.7% more
Miami: 199.3 vs New York: 167.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Miami: 0.5 vs New York: 0.3
Yards Per Play (L5) +11.4% more
Miami: 5.3 vs New York: 4.7
Rushing Yards (L5) +12.4% more
New York: 113.3 vs Miami: 99.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 15.3 21
MIA Score 23.8 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.8 / 18.8 19.0 / 23.0
Net Passing Yards 199.3 / 167.9 177.0 / 207.0
Rushing Yards 99.3 / 113.3 123.0 / 197.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.33 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 298.6 / 281.2 300.0 / 404.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.5 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 4.7 5.4 / 7.1
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
54%MONEY46%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
29%MONEY71%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ Advantage
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
MIA
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -13.8 ATS +/-: -4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
MIA
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
NYJ
MIA
NYJ
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
75% 3-1
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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