Home / NFL Projections NFL / Titans @ Texans TEN @ HOU

TENNESSEE

TITANSTEN

0-3  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-3  |  Home

26
Key Game
Tommy Townsend
KEY GAME

Tommy Townsend

#3 | Punter
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Tommy Townsend None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TITANS
100%
📊
TEXANS
0%
TITANS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
36.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-7.4
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +7.4 points (Houston)
TitansTEN (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Titans Cover

30.0%

Texans Cover

70.0%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around HOU -7.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

TEN By 1-6 points

12.6%

TEN By 7-13 points

9.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

16.3%

HOU By 7-13 points

19.4%

AI Model Projected Score
14.42
TENNESSEE
21.78
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
21
TENNESSEE
24
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Texans Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.4
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 36.2
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 45.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Nov 16, 2025 HOU @ TEN 16 - 13
Sep 28, 2025 TEN @ HOU 0 - 26
Jan 5, 2025 HOU @ TEN 23 - 14
Nov 24, 2024 TEN @ HOU 32 - 27
Dec 31, 2023 TEN @ HOU 3 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Yards Per Play (L5) +21.1% more
Houston: 5.1 vs Tennessee: 4.2
Turnovers (L5) +17.1% more
Houston: 1.6 vs Tennessee: 1.4
Rushing Yards (L5) +13.9% more
Houston: 106.3 vs Tennessee: 93.4
Total Yards (L5) +9.4% more
Houston: 289.3 vs Tennessee: 264.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEN Score 14.4 0
HOU Score 21.8 26
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 14.9 / 17.4 20.0 / 10.0
Net Passing Yards 183.0 / 171.1 224.0 / 93.0
Rushing Yards 106.3 / 93.4 129.0 / 82.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.4 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.64 / 0.36
Total Yards 289.3 / 264.5 353.0 / 175.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 4.2 5.4 / 3.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
12%TICKETS88%
44%MONEY56%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
42%MONEY58%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
58%TICKETS42%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEN
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEN Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -7.0 ATS +/-: -2.1
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
TEN
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -5.5
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
TEN
HOU
TEN
ML
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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