Home / NFL Projections NFL / Commanders @ Falcons WSH @ ATL

WASHINGTON

COMMANDERSWSH

2-1  |  Road

27
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 1:00 PM ET
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
View Odds Details →

ATLANTA

FALCONSATL

1-2  |  Home

34
Key Game
Tress Way
KEY GAME

Tress Way

#10 | Punter
@
DeMarcco Hellams
KEY GAME

DeMarcco Hellams

#23 | Safety
Player
Tress Way None-None
DeMarcco Hellams None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
COMMANDERS
0%
📊
FALCONS
100%
COMMANDERS --
FALCONS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
32.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
WASHINGTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Washington)
CommandersWSH (-3.5) 0 FalconsATL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Commanders Cover

56.4%

Falcons Cover

43.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around WSH -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (WSH)

WSH By 1-6 points

16.9%

WSH By 7-13 points

17.0%

ATL By 1-6 points

15.6%

ATL By 7-13 points

13.6%

AI Model Projected Score
17.15
WASHINGTON
14.91
ATLANTA
Simulated Score
20
WASHINGTON
24
ATLANTA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Commanders Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Falcons Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Commanders (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.2
D
Sim Falcons (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 32.1
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 44.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 WSH @ ATL 27 - 34
Dec 29, 2024 ATL @ WSH 24 - 30
Oct 15, 2023 WSH @ ATL 24 - 16
Nov 27, 2022 ATL @ WSH 13 - 19
Oct 3, 2021 WSH @ ATL 34 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +74.0% more
Atlanta: 1.6 vs Washington: 0.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 17.2 27
ATL Score 14.9 34
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.5 / 19.6 24.0 / 17.0
Net Passing Yards 205.6 / 210.8 307.0 / 147.0
Rushing Yards 151.0 / 149.5 128.0 / 147.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.12
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 356.6 / 360.3 435.0 / 294.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 0.9 1.0 / 1.0
Yards Per Play 5.3 / 5.8 6.8 / 5.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
41%MONEY59%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
22%MONEY78%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
59%TICKETS41%
77%MONEY23%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
ATL Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.5 ATS +/-: -2.6
ATL
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +4.8
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +6.9
ATL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATL
WSH
ATL
WSH
ML
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
ATS
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
0% 0-4
75% 3-1
TTL
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Giants' JJ McCarthy Earns Top Marks from Matt Nagy Ahead of Poss…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
USC Looks to Build Momentum in Road Test at Penn State
si 2 hours, 48 minutes ago
Commanders Roll Dice: Jayden Daniels to Start vs. Giants Despite…
newsweek 9 hours ago
Ronald Acuña Jr. Gets Emotional After Braves' Postseason Exit, E…
ajc 20 hours, 59 minutes ago
Jayden Daniels Returns to Full Practice as Commanders Grapple wi…
headtopics 21 hours, 17 minutes ago