Home / NFL Projections NFL / Ravens @ Chiefs BAL @ KC

BALTIMORE

RAVENSBAL

1-2  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Sep 28 • 4:25 PM ET
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS CITY

CHIEFSKC

1-2  |  Home

37
Key Game
Tyler Loop
KEY GAME

Tyler Loop

#33 | Place kicker
@
Matt Araiza
KEY GAME

Matt Araiza

#14 | Punter
Player
Tyler Loop None-None
Matt Araiza None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
RAVENS
100%
📊
CHIEFS
0%
RAVENS --
CHIEFS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Kansas City)
RavensBAL (-3.5) 0 ChiefsKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Ravens Cover

42.1%

Chiefs Cover

57.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KC -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

BAL By 1-6 points

15.4%

BAL By 7-13 points

13.1%

KC By 1-6 points

16.9%

KC By 7-13 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
27.4
BALTIMORE
30.2
KANSAS CITY
Simulated Score
23
BALTIMORE
27
KANSAS CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Chiefs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Chiefs Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -2.8
D
Sim Chiefs (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.6
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 50.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 28, 2025 BAL @ KC 20 - 37
Sep 5, 2024 BAL @ KC 20 - 27
Jan 28, 2024 KC @ BAL 17 - 10
Sep 19, 2021 KC @ BAL 35 - 36
Sep 28, 2020 KC @ BAL 34 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +28.5% more
Baltimore: 138.4 vs Kansas City: 98.9
Turnovers (L5) +23.0% more
Baltimore: 0.8 vs Kansas City: 0.6
Yards Per Play (L5) +18.8% more
Baltimore: 6.3 vs Kansas City: 5.1
Total Yards (L5) +13.7% more
Baltimore: 351.1 vs Kansas City: 303.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BAL Score 27.4 20
KC Score 30.2 37
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.8 / 20.1 24.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 204.2 / 212.7 264.0 / 194.0
Rushing Yards 98.9 / 138.4 118.0 / 166.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.33 / 0.3
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards 303.1 / 351.1 382.0 / 360.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.1 / 6.3 5.5 / 6.8
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
62%MONEY38%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
67%TICKETS33%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
48%MONEY52%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BAL
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
KC Advantage
4-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BAL
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -1.6
KC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 10.3 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
BAL
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +5.0
KC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KC
BAL
KC
BAL
ML
100% 4-0
75% 3-1
100% 4-0
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
100% 3-0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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