OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-0-0 | Road
3
TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Home
2
AI Model Win Probability
SENATORS
0%
MAPLE LEAFS
100%
SENATORS
--
MAPLE LEAFS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
5.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
OTTAWA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Ottawa)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around OTT -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OTT)
OTT By 1 goal
17.9%
OTT By 2-3 goals
19.7%
TOR By 1 goal
17.0%
TOR By 2-3 goals
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Ottawa
2.92
OTTAWA
Toronto
2.82
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Ottawa
2
OTTAWA
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Senators
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Maple Leafs
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Senators (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Maple Leafs (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -2.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 5.7
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 6.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Power Play % (L5)
+9.2%
Ottawa: 15.1%
vs
Toronto: 5.9%
Blocked Shots (L5)
+89.5% more
Toronto: 26.8
vs
Ottawa: 14.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+11.6%
Toronto: 55.3%
vs
Ottawa: 43.6%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
OTT Score
2.9
3
TOR Score
2.8
2
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
OTT
TOR
OTT
ML
50%
2-2
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
ATS
0%
0-4
0%
0-3
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
TTL
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
67%
2-1
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