ATLANTA
BRAVESATL
72-83 | Road
6
DETROIT
TIGERSDET
85-70 | Home
2
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Raisel Iglesias
#26 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Holton
#87 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Raisel Iglesias | None-None | 3.36 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Tyler Holton | None-None | 3.74 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.36 Ldr
ERA
3.74
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.0
1 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BRAVES
42%
TIGERS
58%
BRAVES
--
TIGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
70%
Under 0
30%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.1
ATLANTA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.1 points (Atlanta)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around ATL -4.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ATL)
ATL By 1-2 runs
16.1%
ATL By 3-4 runs
19.5%
DET By 1-2 runs
7.6%
DET By 3-4 runs
3.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Atlanta
7.01
ATLANTA
Detroit
2.94
DETROIT
Simulated Score
Atlanta
3
ATLANTA
Detroit
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Braves
Win
42% Win Prob
D
Sim
Tigers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Braves (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -4.1
A
Sim
Tigers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 30, 2026
DET @ ATL
5 - 2
Apr 29, 2026
DET @ ATL
3 - 4
Apr 28, 2026
DET @ ATL
2 - 5
Sep 21, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 2
Sep 20, 2025
ATL @ DET
6 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Atlanta
ATL
vs
Detroit
DET
1
Games Played
▲
162
5.00
▲
Runs / Game
4.46
.233
Avg (AVG)
▲
.241
.324
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.320
.433
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.400
.757
▲
OPS
.720
1
Home Runs
▲
181
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+50.2% more
Atlanta: 2.4
vs
Detroit: 1.2
Total Bases (L5)
+39.7% more
Atlanta: 18.9
vs
Detroit: 11.4
Hits (L5)
+35.6% more
Atlanta: 10.5
vs
Detroit: 6.8
Strikeouts (L5)
+24.2% more
Atlanta: 10.4
vs
Detroit: 7.9
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ATL Score
7.0
6
DET Score
2.9
2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.0 / 0.1
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.8 / 10.5
11.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 2.4
0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 10.4
7.0 / 10.0
Total Bases
11.4 / 18.9
14.0 / 18.0
Walks
4.6 / 1.7
7.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ATL
Advantage
97-72-0
(57.4%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ATL
Advantage
(52.1%)
Margin: 0.7
ATS +/-:
DET
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
ATL
76-83-10
O: 47.8% / U: 52.2%
Total +/-: 0.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
ATL
DET
ATL
ML
54%
86-73
46%
77-90
54%
87-73
54%
90-78
ATS
64%
101-58
57%
96-71
57%
91-69
52%
87-81
TTL
46%
69-81-9
53%
83-73-11
46%
69-81-10
49%
76-80-11
Contextual Game News
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