TORONTO
MAPLE LEAFSTOR
0-0-0 | Road
4
OTTAWA
SENATORSOTT
0-0-0 | Home
3
AI Model Win Probability
MAPLE LEAFS
0%
SENATORS
100%
MAPLE LEAFS
--
SENATORS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
6.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-6-4-20+2+4+6
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1 goal
17.8%
TOR By 2-3 goals
19.5%
OTT By 1 goal
17.1%
OTT By 2-3 goals
17.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.17
TORONTO
Ottawa
3.09
OTTAWA
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Ottawa
4
OTTAWA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Senators
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Puck Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Maple Leafs (-0)
Win
Proj Goals: -0.1
D
Sim
Senators (+0)
Loss
Proj Goals: -1.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 6.3
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 7.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 3, 2026
OTT @ TOR
3 - 2
Apr 15, 2026
TOR @ OTT
1 - 3
Mar 21, 2026
TOR @ OTT
2 - 5
Feb 28, 2026
OTT @ TOR
5 - 2
Dec 27, 2025
OTT @ TOR
5 - 7
Key Model Drivers
Blocked Shots (L5)
+47.2% more
Toronto: 26.8
vs
Ottawa: 14.1
Faceoff % (L5)
+11.6%
Toronto: 55.3%
vs
Ottawa: 43.6%
Power Play % (L5)
+9.2%
Ottawa: 15.1%
vs
Toronto: 5.9%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.2
4
OTT Score
3.1
3
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OTT
TOR
OTT
TOR
ML
0%
0-3
50%
2-2
67%
2-1
50%
2-2
ATS
0%
0-3
0%
0-4
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
TTL
67%
2-1
100%
4-0
67%
2-1
75%
3-1
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