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WASHINGTON

NATIONALSWSH

63-92  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sun, Sep 21 • 1:40 PM ET
Citi Field
View Odds Details →

NEW YORK

METSNYM

80-75  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Jake Irvin
STARTING PITCHER

Jake Irvin

#27 | Starting Pitcher
@
Sean Manaea
STARTING PITCHER

Sean Manaea

#59 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Jake Irvin None-None 5.69 -- 5.1 5
Sean Manaea None-None 5.59 -- 3.0 3
None-None W-L None-None
5.69 ERA Ldr 5.59
-- WHIP --
5.1 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) 3
AI Model Win Probability
NATIONALS
39%
📊
METS
61%
NATIONALS --
METS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
NEW YORK
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (New York)
NationalsWSH (-3.5) 0 MetsNYM (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Nationals Cover

43.2%

Mets Cover

56.8%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around NYM -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (NYM)

WSH By 1-2 runs

17.0%

WSH By 3-4 runs

11.5%

NYM By 1-2 runs

19.3%

NYM By 3-4 runs

15.5%

AI Model Projected Score
4.39
WASHINGTON
5.08
NEW YORK
Simulated Score
3
WASHINGTON
4
NEW YORK
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Mets Loss
61% Win Prob
C
Sim Mets Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim Mets (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 9.5
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 27, 2026 NYM @ WSH 4 - 6
Sep 26, 2026 NYM @ WSH 7 - 1
Sep 25, 2026 NYM @ WSH 6 - 7
Aug 16, 2026 WSH @ NYM 3 - 4
Aug 15, 2026 WSH @ NYM 4 - 5
Season Statistics Comparison
Washington WSH
vs
New York NYM
162
Games Played
162
5.07 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.246 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.321 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.423 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.395
.744 ▲
OPS
.705
210 ▲
Home Runs
204
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +64.0% more
New York: 1.3 vs Washington: 0.7
Total Bases (L5) +38.2% more
New York: 16.0 vs Washington: 11.6
Hits (L5) +37.6% more
New York: 10.1 vs Washington: 7.4
Strikeouts (L5) +12.4% more
New York: 9.5 vs Washington: 8.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WSH Score 4.4 3
NYM Score 5.1 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 1.5 2.0 / 0.0
Hits 10.1 / 7.4 8.0 / 9.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 9.5 / 8.4 12.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 16.0 / 11.6 13.0 / 14.0
Walks 2.4 / 3.3 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
14%TICKETS86%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
19%TICKETS81%
6%MONEY94%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
75%TICKETS25%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WSH Advantage
77-85-0 (47.5%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
74-88-0 (45.7%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WSH Advantage
(56.2%)
Margin: 0.0 ATS +/-:
NYM
(46.3%)
Margin: -0.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
WSH
85-69-8
O: 55.2% / U: 44.8% Total +/-: +1.3
NYM
77-73-12
O: 51.3% / U: 48.7% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
NYM
WSH
NYM
WSH
ML
50% 79-80
57% 92-69
48% 76-83
54% 87-74
ATS
58% 93-66
58% 93-68
49% 78-81
57% 91-70
TTL
55% 80-66-13
50% 77-78-6
51% 74-72-13
42% 65-90-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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